Major Grocers Benefit From Returning Consumer Confidence

The latest TNS Worldpanel grocery market share figures for the 12 weeks ending 27 December 2009 provide post-Christmas cheer for the UK’s major retailers with a return to confident consumer spending.

The most recent figures point to 2009 enjoying a Premium Christmas – the latest indication that recessionary buying behaviour is all but over. It is a stark contrast to the picture painted by last year’s figures. 

According to Edward Garner, Communications Director at TNS Worldpanel, “Christmas is traditionally a time when shoppers prioritise the quality of food over value – but the recession put a stop to this in 2008.  We are now seeing signs of a return to more traditional Christmas purchasing habits with a growth in Premium ranges, particularly Tesco Finest, over the festive period.”

As an indication that consumers threw recessionary caution to the wind this Christmas, both Waitrose and Sainsbury’s saw higher-than-expected sales.  Waitrose recorded the highest growth in both market share and turnover since August 2005, while Sainsbury’s continued its strong run with a market share increase for the 11^th consecutive report.

The positive outlook in this sector is reflected in the strong performance of most of the UK’s largest retailers this month.

Morrisons finished a good year with a turnover increase of 10.3% - almost twice the market rate - driven by a strong Christmas loyalty promotion in the run-up to Christmas.  Similarly Tesco and Asda have reaped the rewards of popular alcohol promotions over the festive period. 

At the other end of the retail spectrum, the Discounters have struggled as consumer spending reignites. Aldi has maintained its share of the grocery market, although comparisons must be drawn with last Christmas when Aldi recorded a 25% growth.  This Christmas, Lidl has shown the lowest growth for seven years and has lost market share for the first time since March 2004 – indicating that the Discounters have, for the time being, fallen out of favour.  

Total Till Roll
Great Britain Consumer Spend
Includes all expenditure through main store tills and excludes petrol & instore concessions

These findings are based on TNS Worldpanel data for the 12 weeks to 27th December 2009. TNS Worldpanel monitors the household grocery purchasing habits of 25,000 demographically representative households in Great Britain. All data discussed in the above announcement is based on the value of items being bought by these consumers

TNS update on inflation

Grocery price inflation has further decreased since last month and the figure for the 12 week-ending period 27^th December 2009 is 2.6%*.  This is the tenth successive drop in Grocery price inflation in this series of reports.  This means that the trading-down effect, which has been a feature of the recession, has effectively disappeared.  As always, it is also important to remember that the drop in inflation does not mean that prices are falling, merely rising more slowly.

*This figure is based on over 75,000 identical products compared year-on-year in the proportions purchased by British shoppers and therefore represents the most authoritative figure currently available.  It is a ‘pure’ inflation measure in that shopping behaviour is held constant between the two comparison periods – shoppers are likely to achieve a lower personal inflation rate if they trade down or seek out more offers.

www.tns-global.co.uk

Published: 11 January 2010