Study Reveals The Year’s Fastest Falling And Growing FMCG Products

Data from NIQ (NielsenIQ) for The Grocer’s Top Products survey 2023 highlights how the cost of living crisis has caused a significant change in shopping habits, with people making cutbacks in their spending on certain products and switching from brands to cheaper own-label alternatives.

One of the worst performing categories this year was meat-free (-£34.8m) as shoppers swapped sustainability for money-saving. Another casualty was alcoholic beverages. Spirits (-£181.2m), Champagne (-£29.7m), sparkling wine (-£16.6m) and cider (-£4.4m) were all categories in decline, with beer, wine, and spirit brands accounting for half of the top 10 fastest falling products overall.

Volume declines were recorded across several FMCG categories in the report, but in many cases, inflation masked the declines. Commodity items such as fresh poultry (+£273.1m), beef (+£141.6m), milk (+£497.6m), and cheese (+£423m), which saw some of the highest sales growth, but sales volumes fell in each case.

A similar plight befell HFSS categories, with bagged snacks (+£523.7m), chocolate (+£410.3m), sweet biscuits (+£307.1m), all in value growth as higher energy prices and inflation on ingredients such as cooking oil, sugar, and chocolate were passed on to shoppers, while volumes fell.

However, some products and categories prevailed, achieving value and volume growth. Chief among them was vaping, the fastest-growing category for the second year running.

The other exception was sports & energy drinks (+£390.1m), where the viral success of Prime Hydration (+£130.5m) helped boost the category yet further.

Fastest-growing grocery categories of 2023

Fastest-falling grocery categories of 2023

Note: There were only nine categories in value decline

Adam Leyland, Editor-in-Chief at The Grocer, commented: “As the Top Products Survey shows, supermarkets are in a tug of war with brands. And with own-label product volumes soaring across numerous categories, and the discounters in strong growth, the back-to-basics approach is having a profound impact on volume sales for many leading brands. But there’s growing evidence that brands are tugging the argument in the other direction through increased promotions as inflation starts to ease, and that should mean lower prices for consumers and better innovation over the next year.”

Rachel White, Managing Director UK & Ireland at NIQ, added: “The cost-of-living crisis continues to impact UK consumers, and our data shows that this has had an effect on how they shop for groceries and what they choose to put in their baskets. There has been a real emphasis, despite inflation, on stripping it back to traditional items, such as fresh meat and dairy products and a move away from trying more expensive meal solutions, which have shifted the dial in terms of the meat-free category. Whether this will have an impact in January when many like to experiment with Veganuary, remains to be seen.”

She concluded: “Shoppers have been looking to cut costs where they can, and this has meant that many beers, wines and spirits categories have suffered. However, it is evident that Brits are still looking for those little moments to treat themselves or grab something on the go.”

NAM Implications:

• The issue is the extent that cost of living pressures are causing consumers to fall back on gut-feeling in making judgments re spend.
• i.e. going back to ‘real meat’…
• …keeping HFSS constraints for another day…
• …and being ‘sensible’ about expenditure in questioning ‘the size of the brand premium’.