Christmas spending in the UK is forecast to increase 4.0% to £88.29bn this year after years of subdued growth.
The Shopping for Christmas Report 2024 by VoucherCodes.co.uk stated that whilst the rise comes partly from inflation, it’s also driven by a 1.4% rise in sales volume as some consumers have more money in their pockets to spend on gifts, food & drink, and travel.
The report suggests that the UK will be the only nation out of seven analysed to see a boost in festive sales, with others seeing a decline in spend. France and Italy are forecast to see sales fall by as much as 1.1% and 1.3% respectively. Only Spain (-0.1%) and the Netherlands (-0.1%) will stay relatively flat.
Total Christmas sales. 2021-2023 actuals, 2025 forecast
| Sales (£ billions) | Growth (YoY%) | ||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (f) | 2024 (f) | |
| UK | £84.71 | £82.20 | £84.90 | £88.29 | 4.0% |
| Germany | £74.74 | £73.27 | £73.74 | £73.05 | -0.9% |
| France | £62.84 | £62.48 | £62.83 | £62.15 | -1.1% |
| Italy | £37.54 | £37.44 | £37.93 | £37.45 | -1.3% |
| Spain | £25.03 | £24.91 | £25.90 | £25.87 | -0.1% |
| Netherlands | £12.80 | £12.87 | £12.90 | £12.88 | -0.1% |
| Belgium | £9.76 | £9.66 | £9.72 | £9.63 | -0.9% |
| Total | £307.43 | £302.83 | £307.92 | £309.32 | 0.5% |
Predictions prepared by GlobalData
Back in the UK, almost all retail categories are expected to see a rise in spending this Christmas. With the highest total spend, gifts is forecast to account for £11.35bn of sales – a 0.8% rise on the £11.25bn spent last year. However, holiday travel will see the biggest rise at 6.4%, from £2.18bn to £2.32bn. Food & drink is also expected to see a large uplift at 5.1%, with sales hitting £8.07bn.
Decorations are the only category that is expected to see a fall in spend this year, down from £0.66bn to £0.63bn as consumers prioritise spending on family celebrations.
The report also shows both online and offline sales are set to grow this year, with offline sales hitting £55.81bn (+3.4%) and online growing at a faster rate to £32.48bn (+5.1%). Whilst consumers are choosing the convenience of online shopping when it comes to gift buying, in-store shopping is still the preference for other categories such as food & drink.
“It’s set to be a very Merry Christmas for retailers this year. Almost all areas of retail are forecast to see uplifts over the Christmas period, consumers are finally willing and able to splurge and treat themselves and their family to a big festive celebration,” said Michael Brandy, Senior Commercial Director at VoucherCodes.co.uk
“Although consumers have more money in their bank accounts to spend this Christmas, they’re still looking for ways to stretch their budget. After two years of a cost of living crisis, consumers are much more financially savvy and know when they see a good deal. To convince them to part with their hard-earned cash, retailers will have to offer genuine value and should consider deals and discounts as a way to entice customers to spend.”
NAM Implications:
- Another way of saying that the UK economy is perceived to be in better condition than EU rivals.
- Time to place your bets…
