The value of the world’s core alcohol beverage markets is expected to expand by US$34bn over the next decade, despite ongoing economic and political challenges, which curtailed growth during 2024, according to new data and forecasts from IWSR.
This equates to 3% absolute value growth between 2024 and 2034 across the world’s biggest markets. Between 2024 and 2029, global total beverage alcohol (TBA) value across all 160 IWSR markets will grow by US$16bn, or 1%.
The new forecasts come after another challenging year for the industry: global TBA volumes shrank by 1% in 2024, although value increased by 1%, equating to a US$8.5bn gain.
Contractions in the US and China contrasted sharply with gains in India and Brazil, reflecting the increasingly vital role to be played by developing markets for beverage alcohol in the years ahead.
Using its new 10-year forecasting tool, IWSR is predicting that TBA volumes across the top 31 markets will remain stable through to 2034. However, the only category expected to decline over that period is wine, with a predicted 2024-34 CAGR of -1%. RTDs are set to grow at a CAGR of +2%, while spirits, beer and cider will be essentially flat.
TBA value across these core markets as a whole is also expected to be essentially flat to 2034, although all categories are predicted to outperform their forecast volume expectations in value terms as consumers continue the long-running trend of drinking less while spending a bit more.
Nonetheless, there are clear pockets of growth to be exploited in the years ahead: within beer, Mexico, India and Vietnam will add significant volumes and, even in large but declining markets such as the US, China, Germany and Japan, there are opportunities in segments including no-alcohol, stout and other speciality beers. The premium and super-premium segments are set to be the standout performers here.
Among spirits, Tequila will enjoy strong growth in all markets outside Mexico, expanding at CAGRs of +2% (volume) and +3% (value) across the top 31 markets between 2024 and 2034. Scotch whisky will see strong growth in India – poised to become its largest market by 2027 – and in Türkiye, it is expected to grow at a CAGR of +4% to 2034, becoming Scotch’s fourth-largest market by 2030. Meanwhile, spirit aperitifs will enjoy 4% annual growth across the leading 31 markets to 2034, with Brazil, Poland and the US making substantial gains.
“The main challenge for brand owners over the next few years will be balancing the resource demands of the developing markets, which offer the best chance of top-line growth, with the need to manage the much larger but declining markets which have been the drivers of growth for the past 20 years,” said Emily Neill, IWSR COO, Research & Operations.
“At the same time, they will need to focus on finding growth opportunities across categories and price tiers in both developing and developed markets. One example here is premium beer in the UK, where innovation and targeted marketing created significant growth in 2024, despite it being a very mature market where the overall category is in structural decline.”
