Latest figures from Kantar show that grocery footfall hit a five-year high over the four weeks to 15 June, driving up take-home sales in the sector by 4.1% compared with last year. The jump in shopping frequency came despite another rise in grocery price inflation, which hit 4.7% this month, its highest level since February 2024 and up from 4.1% the previous month.
“Higher prices didn’t stop shoppers making 490 million trips to the supermarket over the latest month, averaging almost 17 per British household. That’s the highest we’ve recorded since March 2020,” said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, noting that the sun had tempted more people out.
However, a rise in frequency was balanced out by a drop in average trip spend, which fell back by three pence to £23.89. McKevitt added: “Consumer concerns over price are continuing, and this is reflected in the figures. Sales of own-label ranges grew at 4.2% this month, ahead of branded lines, as shoppers looked to balance their budgets. Deals also remain an important tool for retailers to offer value, and the proportion of spending on promotion stepped up to 28.8% this period.”
Overall grocery volumes fell slightly by 0.4% over the last four weeks, the first year-on-year decline this year. Kantar suggested that a small part of this fall could be down to changing health priorities, such as the growing use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. “Supermarkets and grocery brands are entering new territory as weight loss drugs become more popular, with four in 100 households in Great Britain now including at least one GLP-1 user,” said McKevitt.
“That’s almost twice as many as last year, so while it’s still pretty low, it’s definitely a trend that the industry should keep an eye on as these drugs have the potential to steer choices at the till. Four in five of the users we surveyed say they plan to eat fewer chocolates and crisps, and nearly three quarters intend to cut back on biscuits.”
Looking at the performance of individual retailers, Ocado was the fastest-growing grocer with its sales up 12.2% in the 12 weeks to 15 June 2025. The online grocer’s growth continues to be driven by more frequent visits to its website and strong performance within its traditional heartlands of London and Southern England. Ocado’s hold of the market now sits at 1.9%.
Among bricks & mortar grocers, Lidl was the fastest growing at 11.2% – its third consecutive month of double-digit growth. The discounter’s share of the market reached 8.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points on this time last year. Key rival Aldi increased its share to 10.9% after its sales rose by 6.5%.
Meanwhile, spending through the tills at Tesco accelerated to 7.0%. The UK’s leading grocer saw the highest share gain over the period, at 0.5 percentage points, taking it to 28.1%. Sainsbury’s share also nudged up during the period to 15.2% after its sales grew by 5.7%.
Morrisons’ share of the grocery market slipped to 8.4% after spending in its stores rose only 2.2%. Asda’s share fell to 11.9% after sales through its tills were down 1.7% on the same period last year. However, this does represent an improving trend, with the retailer pushing to return to growth over the summer months. Waitrose saw its sales climb 5.5% – its best result since March 2021 – while spending on groceries at M&S rose by 12.0% as it recovered from last month’s cyber attack.
NAM Implications:
- The jump in shopping frequency (‘highest Kantar recorded since March 2020’) could also be a reflection of the tendency to shop around.
- Switching to own-label equivalents (sales up 4.2%) continues…
- …carrying with it the risk that ‘satisfied’ switchers might stick with the habit…
- …given the smaller-than-expected compromise.
- Lidl (sales up 11.2%) and Aldi (sales up 6.5%) now have a combined share of 19.0% (!).
- Tesco powers on (sales up 7%, share 28.1%) and Sainsbury’s (sales up 5.7%, share 15.2%)
- i.e. Tesco-Sainsbury’s and Aldi-Lidl have a combined share of 62.3%…
- …surely representing a continuing threat to Morrisons and Asda’s recovery ambitions.
- Maybe time for suppliers to rebalance retailer trading priorities?
