A new report from HIM & MCA predicts that the convenience retail market in the UK will grow 8% to £44.7bn in 2020 – up from 2.6% growth last year – as the sector benefits from changing shopper behaviour during the coronavirus outbreak.
When split out by store type, co-operatives are forecast to see the fastest growth – up 12% year-on-year. Unaffiliated independents are set to grow 11%, symbol stores 7%, forecourt stores 6% and convenience multiples 6%.
The UK Convenience Market Report 2020 report highlights increased volume and sales during the lockdown period, as consumers favour in-home consumption due to risk aversion as well as watching their discretionary spend – a trend that HIM & MCA Insight forecast to continue despite restrictions easing.
Convenience retail has benefitted from larger basket sizes and spend since the start of the pandemic. Basket value has grown 17% year-on-year to £7.46 and average basket size is 2.5 items – up from 2.3 in 2019.
Lockdown has also exacerbated a pre-coronavirus growth trend in planned top-up shopping. Shoppers have turned to convenience for main and planned top-up shopping with independent retailers more flexible when faced with stock pressures. Planned top-up shops have increased 4pps year-on-year, accounting for 22% of all convenience trips in 2020.
Blonnie Walsh, Head of Insight at HIM & MCA, said: “The turn of the decade has seen a transformative year for the convenience retail market. Convenience retailers have been forced to adapt to new basket dynamics and an evolving core consumer base. A shift in shopper missions has resulted in increased basket spend and size, rewarding retailers for the support and commitment they have shown to their local communities.
“Provenance has been a growing trend for some time, and we continue to see increases in the proportion of shoppers choosing a particular store in order to support local businesses. The lockdown will only have accelerated this trend and retailers can leverage this by highlighting local credentials, including work with local suppliers.”
