IGD has launched its ‘UK convenience market 2025 –2030’ report, which reveals the channel grew 1.0% in the first half of 2025, despite continued external challenges and a subdued broader retail environment.
The study forecasts that the convenience channel will grow to £56.2bn by 2030, representing a projected five-year growth rate of 2.7% (CAGR). National mainstream retailers are expected to maintain a strong focus on convenience expansion, underpinned by new store development and ongoing sector specialisation. However, IGD notes that the decline in tobacco and vape sales will remain a restraint on performance, reinforcing the importance of diversification and innovation within the sector.
Despite the headwinds carried over from 2024, the convenience channel sustained limited but consistent growth in the first half of this year, with the sector on track to reach £49.2bn for the full 12 months. Multiples emerged as the fastest-growing segment, now accounting for a 25.4% share of the channel, fuelled by new store development and continued investment in store improvements. IGD stated that these investments have enabled multiples to counteract the downward pressure from sharply falling tobacco sales and to capitalise on rising demand for chilled, fresh, food-to-go, and evening meal solutions.
Symbols continue to hold the largest segment share, growing just above 1.0% in the half. In contrast, Co-ops experienced a weaker performance, impacted by the malicious cyber attack and a number of regional store closures, while unaffiliated independents and forecourts faced ongoing challenges due to the tobacco downturn and site migrations into other segments.
Looking at product trends in the sector, the report shows chilled foods and soft drinks led category value gains in the period, each achieving uplifts of approximately £150m. Fresh fruit and vegetables, frozen food, sandwiches and wraps, and non-food all registered percentage growth rates of above 10%. The largest shift in category share was seen in tobacco, e-cigs, and vaping, whose share dropped below 17% of channel sales in the first half, though it remains the single largest component.
Alcohol, the second largest category, also experienced a continued share decline, now representing 15% of sales, while chilled foods and soft drinks are consolidating their positions as the third and fourth largest categories, respectively.
When tobacco and vape are excluded, category channel sales were up, suggesting that wider channel growth will be notably more buoyant to 2030 as the sector adapts to changing consumer behaviours and regulatory pressures.
Looking ahead, IGD noted that the sector’s resilience and adaptability present significant opportunities for growth. Health-focused stores are emerging globally, targeting affluent, urban shoppers with tailored propositions and testing new concepts that can be scaled across wider estates. At the other end of the spectrum, a focus on indulgent ranges offers the chance to engage customers seeking treats and premium experiences.
Meanwhile, automated dispensing and vending solutions are expanding, enabling retailers to provide a broader range of meal solutions around the clock and creating new opportunities for supplier collaboration and brand visibility.
Quick commerce, driven by proximity and the need for distress purchases, also continues to shape range evolution, with an emphasis on fresh products and meal ingredients to serve fast-changing shopper missions.
“Despite the lingering pressures from declining tobacco sales and broader retail challenges, the UK convenience channel has once again proven its ability to adapt, invest, and grow,” said Patrick Mitchell Fox, Senior Retail Analyst at IGD.
“The sector’s strength lies in its responsiveness, whether through embracing health, indulgence, or automation and its willingness to innovate in line with evolving shopper needs. With robust forecasts to 2030 and a renewed focus on value-added categories, convenience retailing is set for a dynamic and opportunity-rich future.”
