A new report predicts that third-party sales through online marketplaces will add $1.3trn in sales over the next five years and that by 2027, the four largest global online marketplaces – Amazon, Alibaba, Pinduoduo and JD.com – will be responsible for $4.3trn in global sales, up from $2.5trn today.
Edge by Ascential’s 2022 Future of Marketplaces Report examines the evolving model of digital retail platforms and the growing importance of the marketplace model as it becomes a key retail channel globally.
“The most successful retailers, both now and in the future, will operate third-party marketplaces,” said Deren Baker, CEO of Edge by Ascential.
“Between 2022 and 2027, data forecasts from Edge by Ascential suggest that third-party marketplaces will be the largest and fastest-growing retail channel globally. The four largest global marketplace leaders of today – Amazon, Alibaba, Pinduoduo and JD.com – all operate growing third-party marketplaces and are increasingly prioritising this model as a core part of their commerce strategy.
“Edge Retail Insight’s forecasting software anticipates that by the end of 2027, these four marketplaces will account for more than two-thirds of global e-commerce sales – first-party and third-party. The consumer brands that will be most successful in this new retail environment will align with the right marketplace partners, optimise their unique capabilities to use all elements of the marketplace flywheel and leverage real-time data and insights to respond effectively to competitive intelligence, performance blockers and changing market conditions.”
Key findings from the report include:
Alibaba will continue to be the global leader in retail sales by 2027, growing total net GMV sales (e-commerce and bricks & mortar) in 2027 to $1.5trn. Amazon will be the second-largest online retail marketplace with $1.2trn in total net GMV sales in 2027.
- In 2022, the four largest global marketplace leaders– Alibaba, Amazon, Pinduoduo and JD.com– account for $2.5 trillion in global sales (taking into account first-party and third-party sales through their platforms).
- By 2027, these four marketplaces will account for $4.3 trillion in global retail sales (almost 66.5% of global ecommerce sales).
- By 2027, all five of the leading global retailers–Amazon, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com and Walmart–will operate a third-party marketplace.
By 2027, third-party sales through marketplaces will be the largest and fastest-growing retail channel globally, adding more than $1.3trn in sales by 2027 and accounting for 38% of all global retail sales growth.
- First-party e-commerce sales will shrink from 44% today to 41% in 2027, adding $778bn in sales over the next 5 years.
- By 2027, third-party sellers through marketplaces will capture 59% of global e-commerce sales, up from 56% in 2022.
The number of third-party marketplaces operating globally has jumped by more than 500% since 2007.
- Edible grocery will be the fastest-growing category for third-party online sales between 2022-2027, with third-party sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%.
- Household and Pet Care will be the second-fastest-growing category, with 10.6% CAGR growth for third-party sales and third-party sales in the office supplies category growing at 10.5% CAGR.
NAM Implications:
- …more than two-thirds of global e-commerce sales – first-party and third-party…
- Taking this prediction at face value, raises a fundamental question:
- “Are you ready…?”
- Success means:
- Aligning with the right marketplace partners
- Optimise their unique capabilities to use all elements of the marketplace flywheel
- Leverage real-time data and insights to respond effectively to competitive intelligence, performance blockers and changing market conditions
- “How ready are you?”
