Despite talk of a bumper Black Friday trading period, official figures show overall retail sales fell again in November.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the quantity of products bought last month fell by 0.6% when compared with the previous month, with only household goods and food stores seeing growth. This is the fourth monthly decline in a row, which has been blamed on Brexit uncertainty and the general election.
Year-on-year, volumes increased by 1.0% in November, although this was the lowest growth since April 2018, owing to a decline of 1.1% in non-food stores.
The figures were seasonally adjusted to account for Black Friday this year as the official event, on 29 November, was outside the ONS reporting period.
“At face value, November’s further drop in retail sales is pretty concerning,” said Thomas Pugh, economist at Capital Economics.
Even if Black Friday ended up having a bigger effect than the ONS is calculating, he stated that this is “not a very merry Christmas for retailers”.
Retailers have been discounting heavily in recent weeks to shift stock after a slow start to the festive season. The sector is hoping that last week’s decisive election victory for the Conservatives will prompt shoppers to open their wallets in the final days of the Christmas shopping period.
The government is also expected to outline plans in today’s Queen’s Speech to reduce business rates to help smaller, independent retailers.
NAM Implications:
- Keeping in mind that Black Friday sales originated in the US (the day after Thanksgiving)…
- …sworth looking at US 2019 results:
- Black Friday sales in US for bricks & mortar stores dropped 6.2% after shopping on Thanksgiving Day rose 2.3%, according to ShopperTrak data
- The pullback in bricks & mortar stores mirrored a surge in Black Friday online shopping, which hit $7.4bn, an all-time record for the day, according to Adobe Analytics.
- However, eight of the 10 busiest shopping days are still to come in 2019….
- Hopefully….
