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Consumer Confidence Languishes Near-Historic Low

Somewhat unsurprisingly, consumer confidence remained close its record low this month as the coronavirus lockdown curtailed a large chunk of the country’s commercial activity.

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index was unchanged at -34 in the first two weeks of April after it recorded its largest ever decline last month since records began in 1974. The reading is just five points above the record-low of -39 from July 2008 during the global financial crisis.

Of the measures that make up the Index Score, one measure increased in comparison to coronavirus ‘flash’ update on 6 April, one measure decreased, and three measures remained the same:

consumer-confidence-April3-2020

Whilst the overall figure was unchanged, Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at Gfk said that it was is too early to say whether consumer confidence has now stabilised after weeks of adjustment to the reality of lockdown life, or whether further falls are to come.

He added: “Interestingly, we are recording a three-point rise in expectations for personal finances for the next 12-months, although it is important not to attach too much significance to this until we have further tracking.

“It’s no surprise that the Major Purchase Index remains low: despite households making online purchases of home cooking equipment, freezers, TVs, monitors and other goods, these surges in demand have not compensated for the loss of overall retail sales due to the closure of physical stores.”

NAM Implications:
  • No surprises here, in what has become a life or near-death situation for many.
  • Uncertainty persists…
  • But witness the emergence of the super-savvy consumer…
  • …now with 4 weeks practice at, say, making good quality coffee at 10p a cup…
  • …’soon’ to emerge into an unlocked world where £2.80/cup now seems expensive…
  • …and fellow-patrons of a cosy cafe now seem dangerously close.