New analysis of government data suggests that England is heading for one of its worst harvests on record, following record-breaking rain last winter that has reduced yields, disrupted farmers’ ability to grow crops and reduced the wheat harvest by almost a fifth.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) used provisional data on English crop areas for wheat, winter and spring barley, oats and oilseed rape combined with yield forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) to estimate this year’s harvest for these key crops, which is set to be one of the worst three since detailed records began in 1983, just behind 2020 and 2001.
Although the harvest is not quite as poor as feared in the spring immediately following this year’s wet winter, it is still historically bad, leaving the UK dependent on imports to meet demand for bread and other baked goods.
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, commented: “It’s been a year to forget for many farmers, as the recent benign summer has failed to make up for six months of seemingly endless rain over the winter, the effects of which are now becoming apparent.
“More than most, farmers are on the front line of climate change, and this is what that looks like. Extreme weather is already feeding through to higher food bills and a greater reliance on imports.”
Climate change has been shown to have a major impact on food prices, with recent research suggesting that extreme weather added £361 to the average household food bill in 2022 and 2023.
