The Food and Drink Federation’s (FDF) latest Trade Snapshot reveals the continued struggle to recover lost exports since the COVID pandemic.
While export volumes were relatively steady in the first quarter of this year compared to 2024, looking at the longer-term trend, significant growth is needed to return to pre-pandemic levels. UK global food export volumes are down nearly a fifth (20.4%), and non-alcoholic drinks are down 9.2% compared to 2020.
However, the report shows that there are opportunities to raise the level of UK exports, highlighting the positive impact of recent trade negotiations for food and drink manufacturers. The value of food and drink exports to non-EU countries was up 10.5% in Q1, as food producers took advantage of improved access to growing global markets. For example, since the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) came into force in December 2024, UK exports of soft drinks to Malaysia have more than doubled (103%), while exports of sweets have grown by 48%.
Export volumes of food and non-alcoholic drinks to the EU – the UK’s biggest trade partner – were down by 3.7% and 1.7%, respectively, compared to Q1 2024. The recently announced negotiations on a UK/EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement with the EU is expected to have a positive impact, and could boost UK-EU exports by almost a quarter (22.5%). However, FDF noted that this won’t affect exports until 2027 at the earliest.
The report also highlights the potential value of recent negotiations with the US and India for UK trade. Exports to India have surged over the past decade, up 156%. With the new Free Trade Agreement expected to boost exports even further, soft drinks, biscuits and chocolate present particular opportunities for UK manufacturers. Meanwhile, imports from India, such as rice, spices, tea, and pulses, grew a fifth (20%) in Q1 2025. US imports were up by nearly a tenth (8.9%), with particular growth in soybeans, corn, and almonds.
While there are encouraging signs of an improved global trade outlook ahead, FDF warned that there’s more work to be done. It stated that the government must continue to build closer trade relationships with trade partners and prioritise British competitiveness in ongoing negotiations.
“As the UK’s biggest and most important trade partner, the negotiations on a Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement with the EU is a positive step towards reversing a concerning decline in exports from the UK. But it’s far from a silver bullet,” said Balwinder Dhoot, Director of Industry Growth and Sustainability at FDF.
“It’s vital that through these negotiations, the UK secures the ability to influence EU regulatory decisions that will impact British businesses.
“This new data demonstrates that there are also plenty of opportunities for UK food and drink beyond the EU, meaning government should keep its foot on the gas when it comes to improving the UK’s trade relationships across other global markets. Removing trade barriers and helping more businesses expand into new markets abroad presents a crucial growth opportunity, while diversifying our import markets is vital to protecting the UK’s food security.”
NAM Implications:
- NB. Lockdown fallout was unprecedented, meaning unprecedented…
- i.e. unrealistic to hope for a 100% reversal re exports.
- But forced search for new non-EU markets was a positive move, now bearing fruit.
- (There is a lot of UK heritage out there, for those that ask…)
- Meanwhile, the newly negotiated export agreements to the EU will take two years.
- Keep calm and carry on…
