Harvests of key crops in the UK could be down by nearly a fifth this year due to the recent unprecedented wet weather, increasing the likelihood that the price of items such as bread, beer and biscuits will increase.
New analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates that the production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape may be down by 4m tonnes compared to 2023, a reduction of 17.5%. Compared to the 2015-2023 average, the decline would be over 5m tonnes, or 21.2%.
Farmers have been battling to establish their crops in one of the wettest winters on record, with the NFU now warning that the extreme weather associated with climate change presents one of the biggest threats to UK food security. Warmer, wetter winters are expected to increase in frequency as the climate warms.
Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU, commented: “This washout winter is playing havoc with farmers’ fields, leading to soils so waterlogged they cannot be planted or too wet for tractors to apply fertilisers.
“This is likely to mean not only a financial hit for farmers, but higher imports as we look to plug the gap left by a shortfall in UK supply. There’s also a real risk that the price of bread, beer and biscuits could increase as the poor harvest may lead to higher costs.
“To withstand the wetter winters that will come from climate change, farmers need more support. The government’s green farming schemes are vital to this, helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts.”
ECIU noted that the impact of the wet winter is a particular concern for the UK’s wheat harvest. It is estimated that wheat production could be down by up to 26.5% compared to 2023. Milling wheat used to make bread could be hit particularly hard, as it needs to meet higher quality requirements that will be more difficult for farmers to achieve with the wet weather. UK flour millers last week estimated that the milling wheat harvest could be down by as much as 40%.
With the premium for milling wheat over feed wheat at historically high levels, ECIU highlighted that many farmers are set to lose out on vital income. UK millers normally source around 80% of their wheat from British farms, a figure that is likely to be well down after this year’s harvest. Last week, Kingsmill, one of the UK’s biggest bread makers, warned that the price of a loaf could increase
Meanwhile, with the wet weather continuing to hamper planting of spring crops like barley, the historically high malting barley premium may hold, leading to higher costs for brewers and distillers, raising the prospect of the wet winter increasing the price of a pint.
Lancaster concluded: “Farmers are saying this is the worst winter they’ve ever experienced. Coming just as food prices were coming down after the gas price crisis, the public will now rightly fear what this means for the cost of their weekly shop.
“Given half our food comes from abroad, the UK will have to ensure farmers are supported here in the UK, but also in countries that grow the fruit and other staples we can’t, that are also being battered by weather extremes. With climate impacts only increasing as the world warms, we need to view this winter as a harbinger of things to come. Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security.”
