Take-home grocery figures from Kantar show all the major supermarket chains, except Aldi and Lidl, recorded a decline in sales over the 12 weeks to 23 January against tough comparisons with the high demand during the Covid lockdown in the same period last year.
The total figure across the sector fell 3.8%, although spending remained 8% higher than pre-pandemic times.
With consumers facing a cost-of-living squeeze, Kantar’s latest data for the last four weeks shows grocery price inflation now stands at 3.8%, a 0.3 percentage point rise from December. Prices were found to be rising fastest in categories such as savoury snacks, fresh beef, and crisps, while falling in fresh bacon, vitamins, and beer.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, commented: “Prices are rising on many fronts, and the weekly shop is no exception. Like-for-like grocery price inflation, which assumes that shoppers buy exactly the same products this year as they did last year, increased again this month. Taken over the course of a 12-month period, this 3.8% rise in prices could add an extra £180 to the average household’s annual grocery bill.
“We’re now likely to see shoppers striving to keep costs down by searching for cheaper products and promotions. Supermarkets that can offer the best value stand to win the biggest slice of spend.”
Kantar highlighted that its market growth figures do not include on-the-go food and drink purchases, which are likely to be higher than last year. McKevitt said: “Increasing confidence about heading out and about, combined with the return to the office, means we’re starting to see pre-pandemic shopping patterns once again.”
Basket sizes are now 10% smaller than this time last year, hitting their lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while footfall increased by 5% as every major retailer was busier in their stores. Take-home sales of food and drink are also decreasing as people embrace eating out in pubs and restaurants.
McKevitt noted: “There was also evidence of people scrubbing up as the work from home directive ended and socialising increased. In fact, razor blade sales rose by 14% and spend on deodorant increased by 20% as Brits strived to make themselves presentable for the start of 2022.”
Increased confidence in visiting stores was also reflected in online grocery sales. Whilst digital orders accounted for 12.5% of all grocery spend, almost double the pre-pandemic proportion, online purchases are down year-on-year by 15%.
Only three retailers recorded year-on-year growth this period, although every single grocer still has higher sales than two years ago.
Ocado sales grew by 2.3% over the 12 weeks, with its share of the grocery market increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 1.8%. That number almost doubles in London specifically, where the grocer accounts for 3.4% of all sales.
Lidl and Aldi recorded simultaneous growth for the first time since June last year. Lidl was the fastest growing physical retailer and increased its sales by 1.2%, boosting its market share by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2%. Aldi gained an additional 1.1 million shoppers over the period, helping its share grow by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% and boost sales by 1.1%.
Both Tesco and Waitrose performed ahead of the market and increased their share. Tesco’s share moved up from 27.3% last year to 27.9%, marking a full year of market share gains for the retailer. Waitrose saw the greatest footfall increase of any supermarket, helping its share increase by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%.
Sainsbury’s, Asda, and Morrisons all saw declines in their market share, as did Iceland and Co-op.
