Latest forecasts by IGD state that the global grocery retail market will generate an additional US$2.2trn in sales by 2024, growing by 24%. Countries in Asia are expected to see some of the strongest growth, whilst the UK’s performance will be subdued in comparison.
IGD’s data shows that Asia will account for nearly 50% of all new sales produced between 2019 and 2024, compared to 12% produced by North America and 16% in Europe.
The total UK grocery retail market is expected to increase in size by 9.1% to US$275bn over the next five years with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.7%. Apart from Russia, this makes it the slowest growing country in the IGD’s ranking of the top 20 grocery markets in the world (see table below).
Commenting on Western Europe, IGD’s Head of EMEA Jon Wright said: “Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK combined will account for nearly two-thirds of all new sales generated [in Europe] between 2019 and 2024.
“Discounters and the online channel are set to be the key drivers of growth to 2024, with both gaining share versus established channels like hypermarkets and supermarkets. In discount, the continued expansion of regional retailers like Aldi and Lidl will underpin growth, but in specific countries national champions like REMA 1000, Netto and Eurospin will support this growth too. Online will benefit from more investment in improved delivery solutions.”
Wright also highlighted that the discount and supermarket channels will be responsible for most of the additional sales generated for central and eastern Europe, accounting for nearly 50% of the region’s grocery sales growth.
Regarding the strong growth in Asia, IGD’s Head of Asia Nick Miles said: “Asia’s importance to the global grocery market will continue to grow, with eight of the top 20 largest markets set to be in the region in five years’ time. China, India, Japan and Indonesia will account for the majority of new grocery sales generated in Asia between 2019 and 2024. China will overtake the US in 2022 to become the largest grocery market in the world and will account for 43% of new grocery sales in Asia over the next five years. India will also grow in significance, accounting for nearly a fifth (23%) of new sales.
“Traditional trade will continue to grow, while modern trade will benefit from more stores and improvements to existing operations. Growth will vary considerably by market, with convenience and online set to contribute the fastest growth. Online in particular will grow in importance across all markets.”
On North America, Stewart Samuel, Programme Director at IGD Canada, commented: “As a mature market, growth is slow and steady and the economic outlook remains mixed. Online grocery and the discounters will be the fastest growing channels over the next five years. For online, we are in a period of rapid expansion, with retailers seeking to build scale in the channel. Discount retailers, both hard discounters and dollar store operators, are evolving their models and aiming to grab a greater share of customers’ food spend.”
Global Grocery Retail Market Growth 2019-2024
| Rank | Country | 2019 US$bn |
2024 US$bn |
Total change 2019-2024 |
CAGR 2019-2024 |
| 1 | China | 1,429.2 | 1,888.8 | 32.2% | 5.7% |
| 2 | USA | 1,520.4 | 1,750.1 | 15.1% | 2.9% |
| 3 | India | 531.3 | 781.1 | 47.0% | 8.0% |
| 4 | Japan | 468.1 | 558.7 | 19.3% | 3.6% |
| 5 | Brazil | 324.3 | 404.9 | 24.8% | 4.5% |
| 6 | Germany | 285.3 | 328.7 | 15.2% | 2.9% |
| 7 | France | 263.5 | 297.4 | 12.9% | 2.5% |
| 8 | Russia | 261.2 | 279.3 | 6.9% | 1.3% |
| 9 | UK | 252.2 | 275.0 | 9.1% | 1.7% |
| 10 | Mexico | 211.8 | 265.9 | 25.6% | 4.7% |
| 11 | Italy | 203.6 | 227.8 | 11.8% | 2.3% |
| 12 | Nigeria | 128.1 | 205.6 | 60.5% | 9.9% |
| 13 | Indonesia | 139.7 | 191.0 | 36.7% | 6.5% |
| 14 | Spain | 128.5 | 148.4 | 15.5% | 2.9% |
| 15 | Turkey | 98.9 | 140.5 | 42.1% | 7.3% |
| 16 | Canada | 102.7 | 128.6 | 25.3% | 4.6% |
| 17 | South Korea | 97.6 | 120.0 | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| 18 | Pakistan | 85.7 | 111.6 | 30.1% | 5.4% |
| 19 | Australia | 92.4 | 107.5 | 16.4% | 3.1% |
| 20 | Thailand | 76.1 | 101.1 | 32.9% | 5.8% |
| TOTAL | 6,700.6 | 8,312.0 | 24.0% |
Source: IGD research
More insights into predictions for global grocery market growth, are available on the IGD Retail Analysis website.
