Grocery sales in the UK were down 3% year-on-year in the four weeks to 21 March, as the market annualised against the record-breaking spending of the same period in 2020 when consumers began stockpiling before the country’s first Covid-19 lockdown.
Over the longer 12-week period, take-home grocery sales were up 7.4% and spending remains 15.6% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, commented: “Spring’s arrival signals the start of a really interesting period for the grocery market. The anniversary of the first national lockdown means we begin to compare grocery sales against the record-breaking levels seen in the early days of the pandemic and growth has perhaps not surprisingly dipped over the past four weeks as a result. This time last year, Brits were adjusting to schools and offices closing and making extra trips to the supermarket to fill their cupboards for lockdown. To put that into context, shoppers made 117 million fewer trips to the supermarket this month compared with those fraught weeks in March 2020.”
He added: “It’s important to look at these numbers within the bigger picture, and two-year growth figures allow us to examine retailer performance amid these moving parts. While grocery growth has slowed against 2020, sales are still much higher than the same 12 weeks in 2019 – up by 15.6%. As restrictions on dining out continue, the average household spent an extra £134 on take-home groceries compared with this period two years ago.”
Meanwhile, a slowdown in online grocery growth in the past four weeks suggests that some shoppers are returning to physical stores. Online sales were still 89% higher than this time last year but the channel’s share of the market dropped back to 14.5% from the record of 15.4% in February this year.
Kantar’s data shows households made 13 million additional trips to the supermarket this month with growing confidence among older shoppers in particular. Now largely vaccinated, over-65s made 143,000 fewer digital orders in March and increased their trips to bricks & mortar outlets by 6.8% – more than double the national rate.
Looking at the performance of individual retailers over the 12 week period, Tesco increased its sales by 8.5% and once again gained share to capture 27.1% of the market, up by 0.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
In the month that its CEO Roger Burnley announced he will be standing down later in the year, Asda grew ahead of the market and saw its share edge up from 15.0% to 15.1%. Morrisons’ sales growth of 8.7% meant a share increase of 0.1 percentage points to 10.1%, while sales at Sainsbury’s rose by 7.3% to hold its share steady at 15.3%.
Meanwhile, the performance of Lidl and Aldi, which have not benefited from the boom in online sales during the past year, continued to weaken with both chains losing market share despite continuing with their impressive store opening programmes. Lidl’s sales grew by just 2.9%, compared to a 10.9% rise last month. Meanwhile, Aldi continued its poor run with sales up only 1.5%.
Ocado continued to benefit from the online boom with sales jumping by 33.9%, taking its market share up to 1.9% from 1.5% a year ago.
Co-op boosted its sales by 7.1%, with its shoppers visiting an average of 22 times during the 12 weeks. Iceland’s sales increased by 14.3%, with particularly strong growth among families with children, while sales at Waitrose rose by 5.1%.
Kantar’s data shows that grocery inflation stood at 0.9% over the 12-week period with prices rising fastest in categories such as canned colas, chilled fruit juices & drinks and chilled desserts while falling in fresh bacon, vegetables and fresh beef.
NAM Implications:
- The figures we have all been awaiting…
- ‘a year of lockdown’
- Worth a detailed analysis by all.
- A pointer for something extra from Aldi and Lidl?
