Grocery sales in Ireland are expected to surpass €1.4bn for the first time ever in December, driven by surging price inflation over the last year.
Latest figures from Kantar show that take-home grocery sales increased by 7.2% in the four weeks to 26 November. Shoppers visited stores more often in November, making an average of 21.3 trips over the month, which is up 4.4%. However, volumes per trip continued to decline versus last year, down 4.4%.
“We are on course for a record-breaking festive period, with shoppers spending an unprecedented amount at supermarkets this Christmas. It’s always a bumper time for Irish grocers, with consumers buying on average 11% more items than in a typical month,” said Emer Healy, Business Development Director at Kantar’s Worldpanel.
“The Irish grocery landscape is as competitive as ever, with retailers continuing to battle it out to offer the best value to consumers by keeping prices competitive. To give you an idea of just how fierce the competition is this year, the cost of a Christmas dinner for four has risen by 3.2%, well below the overall average growth in price per pack (+5.4%), with some festive items even falling in price.”
Over the 12 weeks to 26 November, grocery price inflation in Ireland fell to 8.6% – the lowest level since August 2022. This follows a drop last month into single figures (9.8%) for the first time this year.
“This is the seventh month in a row that there has been a drop in grocery inflation,” said Healy. “This is good news for consumers, although the rate is still incredibly high … We expect to see this gradual decline in inflation rates continue over the coming months.”
The percentage of packs sold on promotion rose by 1.9% compared to last month. It currently stands at 26.7%, up 15.3% year-on-year, with Dunnes, SuperValu and Tesco all seeing strong growth in sales on promotion – ahead of the total market.
Meanwhile, own-label goods continued to be popular, with sales up 10.4% in the latest 12 weeks, although this was a 0.4 percentage point decrease on last month. Kantar noted that Irish consumers have been getting in the mood for the festivities with premium own-label products, which are up 10.6%, with shoppers spending an additional €13.4m on these items compared to last year.
Own-label value share now stands at 46.6%, with brands holding 48.5% of share, up 1.1% versus last month as shoppers turn to “trusted brands” in the lead-up to Christmas.
Healy commented: “Retailers are pushing own-label lines and promotions to get Irish shoppers through the door. However, it seems that consumers are also reaching for branded goods as they look to indulge over the festive season, spending an additional €92m (up 6.3%) on these products, with branded seasonal biscuits and take-home confectionary proving particularly popular, up 12.9% and 12.4% respectively, and growing ahead of the overall branded market.”
Looking at the performance of the key retailers, Dunnes, Tesco and Lidl all grew ahead of the total market in terms of value this month.
Dunnes hit a new record share of 24.2%, with growth of 11.7% year-on-year. This was driven by a boost in new shoppers, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year – the strongest growth in new shoppers of all the retailers – together with more volume per trip, which combined contributed an additional €31m to overall performance.
Tesco controlled 23% of the market after seeing growth of 11.4%. It had the strongest frequency growth amongst all retailers, up 11.2% year-on-year, as well as recruiting new shoppers in-store, which combined contributed an additional €81.1m to its overall performance.
SuperValu held 20.6% of the market with growth of 6.2%. SuperValu shoppers made the most trips in-store compared to the other retailers – an average of 22.6 trips – alongside seeing a boost in volume per trip, which contributed an additional €47m to their overall performance.
Lidl held a 13.2% share after seeing growth of 10.4%. More frequent trips contributed an additional €39.3m to the discounter’s overall performance. Aldi held 11.7% with growth of 1.4%. More frequent trips contributed an additional €17.3m to its overall performance.
Meanwhile, online sales remained strong, up 25.7%, with shoppers spending an additional €37.3m in the channel compared to last year. More frequent trips (+6%) and new shoppers (+1.7 percentage points) also drove online’s overall growth.
