Latest data from Worldpanel by Numerator shows take-home grocery sales in Ireland rose by 6.1% in the four weeks to 5th October, driven by accelerating inflation and people going back to their normal work and school routines after the summer.
During the period, shoppers spent an additional €67.6m on groceries, picking up more volume per trip, up 1.8% compared to last year. Meanwhile, grocery price inflation is now at its highest level since December 2023, having increased from 6.3% to 6.5%.
Worldpanel noted that despite mounting pressures on consumers’ budgets, they are getting ready for the period of increased spending during Halloween and the Christmas season.
Emer Healy, the group’s Business Development Director, commented: “The next few weeks is a busy time for shoppers. But with the latest budget for 2026 being announced against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, there will be more pressure on shoppers, and it may have an impact on their discretionary spending. The end of one-off payments such as the energy credit and double child benefit, along with rising fuel and other household costs, will put extra pressure on many families, especially as tax bands remain unchanged and some credits are no longer available.
“With Christmas fast approaching and many starting their shopping early to help spread the cost, households will be looking to balance multiple considerations when deciding what groceries to buy and where. With prices still rising, cost is naturally a top priority and will continue to be as we step into 2026.”
As shoppers look for ways to stretch their budgets, the Worldpanel data shows spending on promotional offers has climbed to 21.9% value share in the market, the highest level since June. Spending on promotion jumped by 10.2% over the 12 weeks to 5th October, outpacing the total market (+6.2%).
Healy added: “Shoppers are increasingly relying on promotions to offset rising costs, resulting in an additional €71.5m spent compared to the same period last year. As budgets tighten, it will be interesting to see how this will affect shoppers’ spending habits and the contents of their shopping baskets.”
Over the last three years, there has been a big jump in indulgent categories’ sales on promotions, with chocolate, soft drinks and biscuits all growing on promotion, up 62%, 60% and 30% respectively versus 2022. Overall, Irish shoppers are spending €145m more on promotions than they were two years ago.
While brands performed behind the total market with growth slowing to 4.9% in the latest 12-week period, Irish shoppers still spent an additional €79.3m on branded products.
Own-label saw stronger growth at 6.3%, with premium lines continuing to be the standout performer, up 15.2%. Shoppers spent nearly €18.2m extra on these ranges. Premium own-label lines saw a boost in alcohol (+31%), frozen (+31%) and sweet spreads (+43%) over the 12 weeks. Growth also came through standard own label, with sales up 5.6% versus last year.
Brands currently hold 47.6% value share of the total market, while own label holds 46.5% value share.
Meanwhile, the online channel continued to grow in Ireland, but at a slower rate compared to last month, up 1.2% to take a 5.6% value share of the market. Shoppers spent an additional €2.5m online during the period, helped by an influx of new customers who contributed €2.4m to overall performance. Over 18% of Irish households bought their groceries online during this time.
Looking at the performance of individual retailers, Dunnes controlled 24.4% of the market during the 12-week period, with year-on-year sales growth of 6.2%. Larger trips contributed an additional €5.1m to its overall performance.
Tesco held 23.7% of the market, with value growth of 7.1%. Shoppers increased their trips to its stores by 0.8% and, together with new shoppers, contributed an additional €27.3m to the grocer’s overall performance.
SuperValu controlled 19.2% of the market with growth of 4.6%. Consumers made the most shopping trips to this grocer, averaging 23.9 trips over the latest 12 weeks. The increase in shopping trips contributed an additional €1.6m to its performance.
Lidl held 14.1% of the market with growth of 9.2%, the fastest among all retailers once again. The discounter also saw shoppers pick up more volume in store, up 1.7%, contributing an additional €7.5m to overall performance.
Aldi’s market share stood at 11.4%, with growth of 4.1% after increased store trips and new shoppers drove an additional €8.8m in sales.
NAM Implications:
- Eye-watering food inflation levels make UK version seem reasonable…
- …to say nothing re the ending of government help:
- the energy credit and double child benefit
- along with rising fuel and other household costs
- Premium own label patently benefitting from Irish shoppers following the global trend of transitioning from brands to own label equivalents.
- Presumably to result in similar difficulties in winning them back to brands…
- …as consumers find that the compromise was not as great as years of advertising led them to expect.
