Data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ) shows that Total Till sales at UK supermarkets climbed 5.8% in the four weeks to 12th July, up from 3.8% recorded in the previous month, following a boost from good weather and sporting events.
Three heatwaves during the period, along with events like Wimbledon and the Women’s Euros, helped move the dial on impulse purchasing, boosting incremental spend across categories. Unit sales for soft drinks jumped 14%, with value sales up 21%. There was also double-digit growth in value sales for frozen food (+12%), driven by ice cream and desserts. General merchandise saw a lift in value sales, helped by more outdoor living and dining.
The warm weather also boosted sales of summer staples: cider saw an 11.2% rise in value, while fresh cream surged 13.8%. Strawberries remained a seasonal favourite, with £132m spent over the period (+18.5%) and 58.6 million units sold (+15.3%).
However, the NIQ data confirms that shoppers continue to manage budgets carefully, with the number of items bought per shopping trip continuing to be less than last year (-4%), balanced by more shopping occasions (+5.6%) as shoppers visit stores more often to hunt down savings across supermarkets, discounters, and value retailers.
Retailers are doubling down on value-for-money campaigns and focusing on price cuts delivered through loyalty schemes. However, overall promotional activity held steady last month, with 23% of value sales coming from promotions, a slight decrease from 24% last year.
In terms of retailer performance, Ocado (+13.1%) and Lidl (+10.3%) remained the fastest growing retailers. Discounters continued to be the fastest-growing channel, with FMCG sales growth of 8.7%, and almost two-thirds of households shopping at either Aldi or Lidl during the four-week period.
Sainsbury’s (+5.0%) and Tesco (+4.9%) continued to lead the way amongst the traditional supermarkets, with Waitrose also experiencing good momentum (+4.8%). Morrisons (+0.7%) failed to make significant gains despite its turnaround efforts, while Asda figures (-2.3%) suggest it could be starting to turn things around.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, commented: “While Asda sales are still in decline, the trend is improving.
“Despite the average spend per visit being down due to the deflationary impact of Rollback prices, there are green shoots of recovery as the percentage of shoppers visiting Asda held at just over 50% over the last 12 weeks. And in the last four weeks, visits were up just over 5% which is in line with the industry.”
Watkins added: “The summer holiday season is now in full swing, but consumer purchasing habits tend to become less predictable during this period. The outlook for the next six weeks depends on two key factors: First, with the rising cost of eating out, shoppers may decide to prepare more meals at home. Second, inflation is expected to climb further, which could affect how much shoppers are able to spend. Nevertheless, price competition among retailers will give shoppers more opportunities to save by comparing prices and shopping around.”
NAM Implications:
- Volume sales count, exceptional in the case of soft drinks and strawberries.
- Savvy, careful shopping by worried shoppers…
- …as they shop around for value.
- In practice, almost two-thirds of households shopping at either Aldi or Lidl during the four-week period has to raise questions for the mults.
- Fingers still need crossing for Asda…
