IRI has published its latest ‘FMCG in Western Europe’ report that covers trends to watch within a COVID-19 context, the implications for the industry, and recommendations.
The report is broken down by country, with data and charts for individual countries, including the Netherlands, France, Italy, Germany, Greece, Spain and the UK.
Trends from September’s report include:
- After unprecedented value sales growth (+9%) due to panic stockpiling, FMCG demand remains high in the region (+4%) with the Netherlands leading the way, while Italy has slowed down. Food value sales outperform non-food.
- Despite the holiday season, social distancing and the economic crisis are not helping out-of-home (OOH) consumption, which has not returned to pre-COVID levels. The fall of OOH consumption is an opportunity for FMCG retailers. In France, for example, IRI estimates the loss of OOH at €9.1bn for the first semester, with €4.1bn transferred to FMCG retailers.
- This year’s summer holidays have been more local with less travel abroad. Southern European countries that historically hosted tourists from the North of Europe will be the most impacted. According to an IRI Germany Shopper Survey, a third of Germans planned to skip holidays in the future (including this summer) and to travel less.
- Online growth remains high. In Italy, it is forecast to reach 4% share by the end of 2021 and 7.7% in France by the end of this year.
- Discounter and supermarket performance is back to normal. Discounters are expected to accelerate their growth as savvy shoppers push demand for value, price and proximity, while supermarkets are using promotions to bring shoppers back in-store.
- Food and drink price inflation has accelerated since the beginning of the pandemic (+ 5%+) as promotional intensity dropped during lockdown (-6%+). With promotions coming back in the region (+ 5%+ for the past 4 weeks) to provide shoppers with best price options, deflation is expected – and is already the case in France at -0.26% (in July).
- Significant contraction on the number of items sold during COVID-19, with some countries’ categories shrinking by up to 17%, is yet to return to the ‘old normal’. Non-food has been affected three times more than the food and drinks sector.
- More at-home eating is impacting demand in categories such as healthy food, treats, ready-to-cook and ready meals. Frozen food has grown by 14% during the first semester in France.
Download a copy of the full report here
NAM Implications:
- Key for suppliers (and retailers) to download the report…
- …and conduct line-by-line comparisons with their business…
- …to throw up (!) potential and missed opportunities…
- …by category, retail sector and geography.
